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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Jul 10 1240 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
10 Jul 2024	178	006
11 Jul 2024	177	015
12 Jul 2024	177	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with background C-class flaring and two low M-class flares. The strongest activity was an M1.5-flare, peak time 05:59 UTC on July 10, associated with the largest and most complex active region on the visible disc, NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma). This region remains the main contributor to the flaring activity on disc. Three new active regions near the east limb have been numbered, namely NOAA AR 3742 (beta), NOAA AR 3743 (beta) and NOAA AR 3744 (alpha). They have showing low levels of activity. Two other regions appear emerging near the south-east limb together with a returning region (possibly previous NOAA AR 3713). The remaining active regions are have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at low to moderate levels over the coming days with 60% chance for M-class flaring and 10% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

An equatorial to mid-latitude positive polarity coronal hole is currently residing on the central meridian. The high speed stream emanating from it might arrive to Earth on July 13.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity weakly varied between 358 km/s and 443 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6.5 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field phi angle was switching between the negative and positive sectors, but was predominantly negative (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to register weak enhancements later on July 10 and July 11 with expected mild high speed stream (HSS) arrivals. More notable disturbances in the near-Earth solar wind are expected on July 13th with anticipated faster HSS arrival.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled over Belgium. Quiet to active conditions are expected July 10 and July 11 with anticipated high speed stream arrivals. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for July 12th and minor storm levels are possible on July 13th.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 185, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 09 Jul 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	173
10cm Solarflux	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	007
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	140 - Basierend auf 26 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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