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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Jul 18 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
18 Jul 2024	209	008
19 Jul 2024	200	015
20 Jul 2024	190	008

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate with two double M2 flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3753 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 8) emitted an M2.0 at 17 Jul 19:58 UTC and NOAA AR 3751 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group no 12) produced an M2.2 at 18 Jul 10:14 UTC. For the next 24 hours further isolated M-class activity is likely, either from NOAA AR 3751 or the group of NOAA AR 3743, 3758, 3745, 3747. There is also a small chance of an X-class flare.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained typical of the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 330 and 400 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 7 nT during the past 24 hours. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -5 and 5 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective in the next 24 hours and cause a significant disturbance.

Geomagnetismus

During the last 24 hours geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2), while locally they had a three-hour period of unsettled conditions (K BEL 1-3). They are expected to rise to unsettled or possible active levels due to the expected arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so, although there is a chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 287, basierend auf 22 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 17 Jul 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	224
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	007
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	007
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	278 - Basierend auf 27 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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