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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Jul 31 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
31 Jul 2024	219	024
01 Aug 2024	216	048
02 Aug 2024	213	016

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with six M-class flares. The strongest flares were an M9.4 flare peaking at 19:38 UTC on July 30, associated with NOAA AR 3772 (beta) and an M7.7 flare peaking at 06:46 UTC on July 31, associated with NOAA AR 3768 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently thirteen active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are NOAA ARs 3765 (beta-gamma-delta) and 3768 (evolved to magnetic type beta-gamma- delta). NOAA AR 3766 has decreased to magnetic type beta-gamma. NOAA AR 3772 (beta) has rotated on disk from the southeast limb. NOAA AR 3774 has rotated on disk from the east limb, near the equator. A new, currently unnumbered active region has rotated on disk from the east limb, in the northeast quadrant. NOAA 3773 (beta) has emerged in the southwest quadrant, west of NOAA AR 3764 and near the equator. NOAA AR 3762 is currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

Further analysis of the coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 13:36 UTC on July 29 suggests that a glancing blow arrival may be possible starting from late August 01, but may be indistinguishable from the expected halo or partial halo CME arrivals from July 28-29. A CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery around 20:00 UTC on July 30, lifting off the southeast limb. Its source region is expected to be just behind the east limb and it is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. A CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 01:50 UTC on July 31, most likely associated with a filament eruption in the vicinity of NOAA AR 3773. It is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. A wide CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 07:15 UTC on July 31, lifting off the southeast limb. It is probably associated with the M7.7 flare which peaked at 06:46 UTC on July 31, from NOAA AR 3768. It is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. Further analysis of this event is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronale Löcher

A northern, negative polarity coronal hole is still crossing the central meridian. A possible, mild high-speed stream associated with it could arrive at Earth starting from August 01, but may be indistinguishable from the expected coronal mass ejection (CME) arrivals.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind conditions are returning to the slow solar wind regime, following the shock observed around 23:30 UTC on July 29. Speed values have decreased from 515 km/s to around 400 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field is currently around 7 nT. The Bz component is mostly positive, with values between 1 nT and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Further enhancements in the solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours due to the predicted arrival of several halo or partial halo CMEs observed on July 28-29.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were at active levels (NOAA Kp 4 and K BEL 4) around 12:00 UTC on July 30 as a result of the shock observed in the solar wind around 23:20 UTC on July 29. Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally gradually decreased to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3+ and K BEL 3) and are currently at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2 and K BEL 2). Unsettled to moderate storm conditions (NOAA Kp 6) with possible major storm intervals (NOAA Kp 7) are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours due to the predicted arrival of several halo or partial halo CMEs observed on July 28-29.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending new eruptive activity from NOAA ARs 3762, 3764, 3765, 3766, 3768 and 3771.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 264, basierend auf 17 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 30 Jul 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	220
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	025
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	025
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	223 - Basierend auf 29 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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