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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Aug 15 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
15 Aug 2024	240	007
16 Aug 2024	236	014
17 Aug 2024	230	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels, with three M-class flare recorded. The largest flare was a M5.26-flare, with peak time 15:49 UTC on August 14 and is associated with NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta). The second largest flare was a M1.13-flare, with peak time 03:48 UTC on August 15 and is associated with NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma- delta) and NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) are the largest, most magnetically complex regions on disk and produced most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 3789 (beta) has emerged on the north-east quadrant of the Sun. NOAA AR 3787 has turned into a plage region. The other regions were stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analyses of the CMEs observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 10:12 UTC on August 13 and at 04:50 UTC on August 14 show that no impact is expected at Earth. The partial halo CME observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 09:50 UTC on August 14 that was associated with a X1.11-flare, with peak time 06:40 UTC on August 14 is expected to arrive at earth on August 18.

Koronale Löcher

A negative polarity mid-latitude coronal hole is continuums to transit the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. It’s possible that the associated high-speed stream arrives to Earth around August 16. A second positive high-latitude polarity coronal hole has started transitioning the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. For this coronal hole, no impact at Earth is expected from its associated high-speed stream.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed varied between 335 km/s to 432 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 5 nT and 9 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -5 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind is can become perturbed due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream on August 16.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1 - 3 and K BEL 1 - 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to active levels in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 157, basierend auf 16 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 14 Aug 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	248
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	011
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	016
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	179 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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