Archiv von Sonntag, 18 August 2024 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Aug 18 1236 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
18 Aug 2024	235	008
19 Aug 2024	240	010
20 Aug 2024	230	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at high levels, with 5 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a M2.41-flare, with peak time 02:04 UTC on August 18 and is associated with NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) and NOAA AR 3790 (beta-gamma) are the most magnetically complex regions on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3793 (beta) NOAA AR 3794 (beta) have emerged on the north-west quadrant of the visible disk. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Sonnenwind

In the last 24 hours, the Earth came under the influence of an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) arrival. A shock was detected in the solar wind data around 13:30 UTC on August 17. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 7 nT to 17 nT, the solar wind speed increased from 324 km/s to 430 km/s, and the solar wind density at the shock rose from 2 particles/cm3 to 12 particles/cm3. The ICME is likely associated with a partial coronal mass ejection observed on August 14. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) until it switched to the negative section around 16:30 UTC on August 17. Solar wind conditions are returning to the slow solar wind regime and are expected to remains so over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions have reached major storm levels globally (NOAA Kp 7-) and moderate storm levels locally (K BEL 6) between 15:00 UTC on August 17 and 01:00 UTC on August 18 after which they reduced to quiet to unsettled levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 209, basierend auf 07 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 17 Aug 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	230
AK Chambon La Forêt	048
AK Wingst	035
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	036
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	202 - Basierend auf 20 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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