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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Aug 21 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
21 Aug 2024	235	008
22 Aug 2024	235	011
23 Aug 2024	235	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M1.3-flare, with peak time 17:08 UTC on August 20 2024, from NOAA AR 3785 (beta). There are currently 11 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3784 and 3790 are the most complex AR (beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and a low chance of X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

There was an eruption seen in AIA/SDO 193 on August 20 at 17:30 UTC from NOAA AR 3793, but no associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has yet been observed in the available coronagraph images. No other earth-directed CMEs have been observed.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind at the Earth remained slow over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed remained around 350 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field was stable around 6nT. The Bz reached a minimum value of -6nT. Small enhancements of the solar wind speed may occur on August 22 due to a possible high-speed-stream arrival associated with the coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on August 19.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (Kp 3- and K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions may reach active levels on the 22 August, due to a possible high-speed stream arrival.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 215, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 20 Aug 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	219
10cm Solarflux	244
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	012
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	223 - Basierend auf 28 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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