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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Aug 30 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
30 Aug 2024	200	023
31 Aug 2024	198	024
01 Sep 2024	196	012

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours reached moderate levels, with several C-class flares and one M-class flare being detected. The largest flare was an M1.2 flare, peaking at 02:36 UTC on August 30, associated with NOAA AR 3806 (beta class). This region was responsible for the most of the flaring activity observed during this period together with NOAA AR 3801 (beta class). NOAA AR 3800 (beta-gamma class), which is currently approaching the west limb, and NOAA AR 3799 (beta-gamma class) remain the most complex regions on the disk but were inactive. A new, currently unnumbered AR, which has emerged in the south- east quadrant, west of NOAA AR 3804, produced isolated C-class flares. NOAA 3805 have decayed into plage. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3796 (beta) and NOAA AR 3805. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares likely, M-class flares possible, and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) registered the arrival of a high speed stream while remaining under the continuous mild influence of an ICME. The total interplanetary magnetic field strength ranged between 12 and 20 nT. The solar wind speed gradually increased from values around 290 km/s to around 400 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) reached a minimum of -13 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun) at the start of the period before switching to the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun) from 07:40 UTC on August 30. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be elevated in the next days due to influence of HSS from positive polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetismus

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=1-3, NOAA-Kp=1-3) with a short period of active conditions (NOAA-Kp=4) registered between 06:00 and 09:00 UTC on August 30. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the next days, with possible isolated active or minor storm periods during next hours due to influence of the HSS.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements in case of increased solar activity.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 156, basierend auf 16 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 29 Aug 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	153
10cm Solarflux	204
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	005
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	154 - Basierend auf 24 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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