Archiv von Montag, 16 September 2024 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Sep 16 1256 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
16 Sep 2024	177	026
17 Sep 2024	176	055
18 Sep 2024	178	014

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with background high C-class flaring. The largest activity was C6.0-flare, with peak time 01:25 UTC on Sept 16th associated with NOAA AR 3824 (beta-gamma). This region together with NOAA AR 3825 (beta-gamma) are the largest and most complex regions on the visible solar disk and were responsible for most of the flaring activity over the past 24 hours. Additional low C-class flaring was produced from behind the south- east limb, possibly by a returning region rotating NOAA 3807. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at low to moderate levels over the coming days with 50% chances of M-class flares and small chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of continuous high speed stream regime. The solar wind velocity was in the range of 403 km/s to 580 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was mildly elevated, reaching a maximum of 10 nT with a minimum Bz of -9.7 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated due to the ongoing high speed stream and register further highly disturbed conditions due to anticipated ICME arrival of the Sept 14th CME.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Usettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail until late UTC evening on Sept 16th. Probable minor and possibly major to severe storm levels are expected for late Sept 16th to early Sept 17 due to anticipated ICME arrival. Quiet to minor storm levels are expected later on Sept 17 and mostly quiet to active conditions are anticipated for Sept 18th.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at elevated levels due to an ongoing proton event, but remained below the 10 pfu radiation storm warning thresholds. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain at elevated levels on Sept 16th and decrease towards nominal levels on Sept 17th pending no new strong eruptive activity from the Sun.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain elevated on Sept 16th and decrease to nominal values later. The 24h electron fluence was reached moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours and decrease back to nominal levels after.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 141, basierend auf 12 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 15 Sep 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	018
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	019
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	095 - Basierend auf 15 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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