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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Sep 27 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
27 Sep 2024	181	007
28 Sep 2024	183	007
29 Sep 2024	185	016

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.4 one from NOAA AR 3839, peaking at 23:12 UTC on 26 September. This AR is rotating into view over the east limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours. A partial halo CME with angular width around 150 degrees erupted on 26 September, first seen by LASCO C2 at 09:12 UTC. This event is backsided and will not arrive to the Earth.

Koronale Löcher

A small negative polarity coronal hole crossed central meridian on 26 September, a HSS may be expected at the Earth on 29 September.

Sonnenwind

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds around 360 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field of about 5 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 48 hours.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet both locally and globally (K_Bel and Kp from 1 to 3). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels, and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 went slightly above the 1000 pfu threshold on 25 September, while it remained below it in GOES 16. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels, and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 162, basierend auf 15 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 26 Sep 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	184
10cm Solarflux	181
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	015
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	144 - Basierend auf 15 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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