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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Oct 02 1251 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

X-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
02 Oct 2024	250	011
03 Oct 2024	250	012
04 Oct 2024	249	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was at very high level over the past 24 hours, with few M-class flares and an X-class flare. The strongest flare was GOES X7.1 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active Region 3842) which peaked at 22:20 UTC on Oct 01. During the flare, the source region (SIDC 257, AR 3842) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 11 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active Region 3842) is the most complex region on the disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, possibly with few M-class flares and a chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed on SOHO/LASCO coronograph images starting around 23:12 UTC on Oct 01, on SE limb. This CME is possibly associated with an X7.1 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active Region 3842, S16 E16), which peaked at 22:20 UTC on Oct 01, and th EUV wave. Associated type II radio emissions were also detected at 22:17 UTC on Oct 01. This CME has an angular width of about 100 deg. With its source region closer to the central meridian, it is expected to have Earth-directed component. Another narrow CME was also observed on coronograph images starting around 06:48 UTC on Oct 02, on SE limb. This CME is possibly associated with a M3.6 flare from the same active region (S17 E12) which peaked at 05:38 UTC on Oct 02, and the EUV wave. Associated type II radio emissions were also detected at 05:44 UTC on Oct 02. This CME has an angular width of about 60 deg. Further analysis is going-on to investigate the potential Earth-directed components of these two CMEs. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Sonnenwind

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged from 320 km/s to 470 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 2 nT to 6 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours, unless the Earth experiences glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the East limb of Sun on Sep 30.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K_BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours, unless the Earth experiences glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the East limb of Sun on Sep 30.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 217, basierend auf 12 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 01 Oct 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	230
10cm Solarflux	245
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	211 - Basierend auf 09 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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