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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Oct 11 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
11 Oct 2024	214	057
12 Oct 2024	212	026
13 Oct 2024	210	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with four M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M3.0 flare from beyond the west limb, peaking at 22:30 UTC on October 10. There are currently six numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 217 (NOAA AR 3848, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). SIDC SG 282 (NOAA AR 3853, magnetic type alpha) has emerged in the northeast quadrant. A new active region, SIDC SG 283 (NOAA AR 3854, magnetic type beta-gamma) is now numbered west of SIDC SG 281 (NOAA AR 3852, magnetic type beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronale Löcher

The northern, negative polarity coronal hole reported on October 09 has fully crossed the central meridian. A possible, mild high- speed stream associated with it could arrive at Earth starting from UTC midnight on October 11 but may be indistinguishable from the influence of the coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival reported on October 10. The southern, positive polarity coronal hole has fully crossed the central meridian. A possible, mild high-speed stream associated with it could arrive at Earth starting from UTC midday on October 13.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind conditions were enhanced during the last 24 hours due to the arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME), related to the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed at 02:30 UTC on October 09. A shock was detected in the solar wind data (ACE and DSCOVR) at 14:45 UTC on October 10. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 9 nT to 25 nT, with the Bz component changing from 6 nT to -25 nT. The solar wind speed jumped from 460 km/s to around 790 km/s. The solar wind density at the shock jumped from 9 ppcc to around 25 ppcc (DSCOVER). The maximum magnetic field value was around 46 nT (at 22:00 UTC on October 10), with the Bz component reaching values of around -46 nT at the same time. The interplanetary magnetic field angle changed from positive to negative at 22:00 UTC on October 10. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours, due to the continued influence from the ICME arrival and the possible arrival a mild high-speed stream from the northern, negative polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally over the last 24 hours were mostly at severe storm levels (NOAA Kp 8- to 9-). Geomagnetic conditions locally over the last 24 hours were mostly at major storm levels (K BEL 7). Mostly minor to moderate storm conditions, with possible major storm intervals, are expected globally and locally in the next 24 hours due to the continued influence of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival from the CME that lifted off at 02:30 on October 09 and the possible arrival a mild high-speed stream from the northern, negative polarity coronal hole.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was at minor radiation storm levels, with short moderate storm intervals until 03:30 UTC on October 11. It has since decreased below the 10 pfu threshold but currently remains close to it. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours, pending further eruptive activity.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was close to the threshold around 15:00 UTC on October 10 but remained below it. It is expected to remain below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 137, basierend auf 18 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 10 Oct 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	171
10cm Solarflux	216
AK Chambon La Forêt	116
AK Wingst	105
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	103
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	141 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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