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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Nov 14 1256 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
14 Nov 2024	154	007
15 Nov 2024	154	007
16 Nov 2024	154	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The most complexe region is the recurent SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3859, whcih bacme 3889) currently located at S10W15 has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration during this period. The largest flare was a M1.7 flare (SIDC Flare 2599) peaking on November 13 at 17:08 UTC, which was produced by this SIDC Sunspot Group 288. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

The recurrent SIDC Coronal Hole 68, which first reached the central meridian on 2024-11-07 (and initially on 2024-09-10), continues to transition across the central meridian, and its high-speed streams are currently influencing solar wind conditions near Earth. The small SIDC Coronal Hole 78, an equatorial coronal hole with positive polarity that emerged on 2024-11-12, has reached the central meridian today.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind conditions near Earth have been influenced by the high-speed stream associated with the positive- polarity, mid-latitude northern coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 68), which crossed the central meridian on 2024-11-07. The solar wind speed gradually increased, reaching values around 460 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field was elevated, ranging from 10 to 14 nT, and the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, fluctuated between -9.4 nT and 10.6 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain under the influence of this high-speed stream over the next 24 hours, with a possible further increase in solar wind speed.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet (NOAA Kp 1-2), with a short period of unsettled conditions observed locally (K BEL 3) despite the ongoing influence of high-speed streams from the mid-latitude northern coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet to unsettled, with possible active conditions over the next 24 hours if the solar wind speed increases further, especially if the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, remains negative for an extended period.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to stay below this threshold level over the next 24 hours. Due to the enhanced solar and flaring activity, a slight chance of an increase cannot be fully excluded.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

he greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 084, basierend auf 04 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 13 Nov 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	007
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	112 - Basierend auf 15 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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