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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Nov 22 1238 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
22 Nov 2024	169	011
23 Nov 2024	174	011
24 Nov 2024	180	009

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C9.0 flare (SIDC Flare 2676) peaking on November 22 at 03:44 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 298 (NOAA Active Regions 3901). Two new regions emerged in the western hemisphere, SIDC Sunspot Group 320 and 321 (NOAA Active Region 3903 and 3904, respectively). A large new region also rotated over the south-east solar limb and was numbered as SIDC Sunspot Group 322 (NOAA Active Region 3905), which also produced C-class flaring. The remaining regions were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A partial Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) predominantly directed to the south-east was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from around 12:48 UTC November 21. This originated from a filament eruption, visible in SDO AIA 304 over the east limb from 11:36 UTC November 21. This CME is therefore not expected to be Earth directed. A second halo CME, predominantly directed to the north-west, was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from around 18:12 UTC November 21. This CME was associated with a region beyond the west limb and is therefore not expected to be Earth directed. However, an associated proton event was detected at Earth.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions predominantly reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 3 and 10nT, with a minimum Bz of -7 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 360 km/s and 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched was mostly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed may become slightly elevated over the next 24 hours due to the possible high-speed stream influence, associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 79, which began to cross the central meridian on November 18.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Generally quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with possible isolated active conditions due to any high-speed stream influence.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux increased above the 10 pfu from 19:25 UTC November 21 and reached a maximum value of 125 pfu at 03:30 UTC November 22. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton is currently around 38 pfu and is expected to remain elevated for the next day, with further increases possible in response to further high energy flaring activity from the same region beyond the west limb.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 144, basierend auf 09 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 21 Nov 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	175
10cm Solarflux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	011
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	010
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	116 - Basierend auf 12 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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