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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Dec 13 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
13 Dec 2024	164	007
14 Dec 2024	165	008
15 Dec 2024	166	011

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with four M-class flares and several C-class flares. The strongest flare was an M2.2 flare (SIDC Flare 2939) peaking at 17:43 UTC on December 12, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 318 (NOAA Active Region 3922, magnetic type beta). There are currently five numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917, evolved to magnetic type beta- gamma-delta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 332 (NOAA Active Region 3920, magnetic type beta-delta). SIDC Sunspot Group 330 (NOAA Active region 3916) has decayed into plage. SIDC Sunspot Group 337 (NOAA Active Region 3924, magnetic type beta) has emerged in the southeast quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 12:00 UTC on December 12. Its source region is estimated to be near or beyond the east limb. It is not expected to have an impact on Earth. A second CME was detected in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 03:12 UTC on December 13. It is most likely associated with flaring activity near SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA AR 3917). Current analysis suggests that it will not have an impact on Earth. A large prominence eruption was observed in GOES/SUVI 304 data at the west limb, around 21:45 UTC on December 12, but no associated CME was observed in the available coronagraph imagery. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronale Löcher

A small, northern, positive polarity coronal hole, SIDC Coronal Hole 78, has crossed the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from December 14.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE) reflected slow solar wind conditions. Speed values were around 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were between 5 nT and 7 nT. The Bz component varied between -5 nT and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with a chance for enhancements due to a possible high-speed stream arrival from the northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 78).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2 and K BEL 2) in the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, with possible unsettled to active intervals due to the possible high-speed stream arrival from the northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 78).

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was enhanced but remained marginally below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was above the threshold between 15:30 UTC on December 12 and 23:45 UTC on December 12. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 is currently increasing and it is expected to be above the threshold over the next 24hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is expected to be mostly at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 120, basierend auf 05 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 12 Dec 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	109
10cm Solarflux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	005
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	114 - Basierend auf 07 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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