Archiv von Sonntag, 15 Dezember 2024 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Dec 15 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
15 Dec 2024	174	013
16 Dec 2024	177	010
17 Dec 2024	180	011

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at low levels, with C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C8.2 flare peaking around 11:08 UTC on December 15, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917, magnetic type beta-gamma). There are currently four numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are SIDC Sunspot Groups 288, 332, 337 (NOAA Active Regions 3917, 3920, 3924, all magnetic type beta-gamma). SIDC Sunspot Group 318 (NOAA Active Region 3922) has decayed into plage. A new, currently unnumbered active region has rotated on disk in the southeast quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917) is currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A wide coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 00:45 UTC on December 15, lifting off the southwest quadrant. It is most likely associated with a large filament eruption around 23:40 UTC on December 14, west of SIDC Sunspot Group 337 (NOAA Active Region 3924). The CME is propagating to the southwest with an estimated speed of 450 km/s. Current analysis suggests that a glancing blow may arrive at Earth in the UTC morning on December 19. A faint, slow CME was observed earlier in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, around 11:20 UTC on December 14, lifting of the west limb. It is most likely associated with flaring activity near SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917). Current analysis suggests a small chance for a mild glancing blow arriving at Earth starting from the UTC evening on December 19, but it may be indistinguishable from the previous case. A prominence eruption was observed around 01:15 UTC on December 15 in the east limb, but no associated CME was observed in the available coronagraph imagery. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. Speed values have gradually increased from 310 to 410 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were initially around 10 nT and then increased up to 13 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative, with values varying between -10 nT and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, due to a possible high-speed stream arrival from the northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 78).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3) in the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions locally reached unsettled levels (K BEL 3) between 16:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on December 14, later returning to quiet levels (K BEL 1-2). Mostly unsettled conditions are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, with a chance for active intervals due to the possible high-speed stream arrival from the northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 78).

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 109, basierend auf 07 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 14 Dec 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	011
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	099 - Basierend auf 09 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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