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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Jan 08 1254 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
08 Jan 2025	168	009
09 Jan 2025	166	010
10 Jan 2025	166	017

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate over the past 24 hours with an M1.1 flare, peak time 23:05 UTC on January 07. The flare was most likely related to an activity from SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA Active Region 3939) from behind the west limb. Another notable flaring was an C9.8 flare with peak time 06:37 UTC on January 08 associated to SIDC Sunspot Group 337 (NOAA Active Region 3950), classified as magnetically simple region type alpha. There are currently 8 numbered numbered active regions on the visible solar disk with SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947) remaining the largest and the most complex one (magnetic type beta-gamma-delta), responsible for most of the C-class flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 358 (NOAA Active Region 3945), classified as magnetic type beta, has also contributed to the observed C-class flaring. The remaining active have been predominantly simple and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days with likely M-class flares and 10% chance for X-class flaring.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected the waning influence of a high speed stream and a short mild glancing blow ICME arrival between 04:30 UTC and 12:50 UTC on January 07. The solar wind parameters since then are on a declining trend towards background slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field was mild with maximum values of 6.8 nT and a minimum Bz of -5.3 nT. The solar wind speed was decreasing from 598 km/s towards 438 km/s. After the passage of the ICME the B field phi angle switched to being entirely in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to decrease towards background levels on January 08. Mild enhancements is the solar wind parameters are possible late UTC on January 09 and January 10 due to anticipated high speed stream arrivals related to two positive polarity coronal holes, which crossed the central meridian on January 06 and January 07.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were predominantly quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period as registered by NOAA Kp index between midnight and 03 UTC on January 08. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Quiet to active conditions can be expected late on January 09 and January 10 with anticipated possible mild high speed stream arrivals.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the 24 hours with remaining chances for small enhancements pending new eruptive activity particularly from SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947).

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to cross the threshold for extended periods over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at the border of nominal to moderate levels and is expected to be moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 122, basierend auf 04 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 07 Jan 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	172
10cm Solarflux	168
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	015
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	013
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	134 - Basierend auf 12 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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