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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 May 05 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
05 May 2025	156	016
06 May 2025	158	026
07 May 2025	160	015

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 492 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4082, Beta magnetic configuration) produced most of the flares, including the brightest, a C5 on 4 May at 12:31 UTC. SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA AR 4079, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) was the second flare-producing AR of the past 24 hours, with one C1 flare detected on 4 May. However as both SIDC Sunspot Groups 469 and 492 are complex AR increasing in size and complexity, M-class flaring activity is likely to take place in the next 24 hours, with a very small chance of an isolated X-class flare.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

SIDC Coronal Hole (CH) 111 is a large middle-latitude CH with negative polarity and started crossing the central solar meridian during the past 24 hours. It is expected to produce a strong High Speed Stream (HSS) that will become geo-effective on 8 May.

Sonnenwind

As previously predicted, the High Speed Stream (HSS) that arrived on 2 May has somewhat subsided approximately 24 hours ago. However, this decrease in the Solar Wind (SW) speed only lasted a few hours, as a new HSS, associated with the SIDC CH 109 and 110 arrived on 4 May. The SW speed increased from 530 to 820 km/s during the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) varied between 3 and 10 nT and its North- South component (Bz) fluctuated between -8 and 8 nT during the same period. The SW conditions are expected to remain affected by the new HSS during the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reach globally the minor storm level for a short period of time (NOAA Kp 5- on 5 May at 03:00 to 06:00 UTC), while of the rest of the last 24 hours they fluctuated between unsettled and active levels (NOAA Kp 3+ to 4+). Locally the geomagnetic conditions registered only up to active levels (K BEL 3 to 4) during the same period. In the next 24 hours they are expected to continue at active levels both globally and locally. Nevertheless, there is a chance that minor storm levels may register for a short period of time.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours. However, there is a small chance that a proton event might occur during the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 19 fluctuated above and below the 1000 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours, with a peak value at 9000 pfu. It is expected to remain in the same pattern during the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence remained at moderate levels and is expected to continue at these levels over the next 24 hours. These elevated values are the result of the continuous influence of HSS and the lack of geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 103, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 04 May 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	039
AK Wingst	029
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	030
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	085 - Basierend auf 18 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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