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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 May 09 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
09 May 2025	147	008
10 May 2025	145	024
11 May 2025	142	013

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 492 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4082, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) produced the brightest flare (SIDC Flare 4336) of the last 24 hours, a C7 on 8 May at 15:00 UTC. The rest of the flares were produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region 4079, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration), with the brightest of its flares being SIDC Flare 4341, a C4 on 9 May 11:21 UTC. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed varied between from 410 km/s and 510 km/s, while the interplanetary magnetic field (B) ranged between 4 and 8 nT, and its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -7 and 6 nT. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is still likely to arrive and there is a small chance of a glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions registered globally quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 1- to 3-) with the exception of a NOAA Kp 4 value registered between 21:00-24:00 UTC on 8 May. Locally the geomagnetic conditions were also quiet to unsettled (K BEL 1 to 3) during the past 24 hours. As a High Speed Stream (HSS) is still expected in the next 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions might still rise to active levels.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES 19, continued to be above the 1000 pfu threshold throughout the 8 May. It peaked at 15000 pfu on 8 May at 15:00 UTC. However since 9 May 00:30 UTC it has dropped below the alert threshold but remained very close to it. In the next 24 hours it is expected to fluctuate around the 1000 pfu alert level. The 24-hour electron fluence was at high levels on 8 May but has since dropped to moderate levels. It is expected to remain at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 079, basierend auf 21 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 08 May 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	106
10cm Solarflux	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	015
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	090 - Basierend auf 25 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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