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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Jun 30 1233 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
30 Jun 2025	132	015
01 Jul 2025	128	008
02 Jul 2025	125	046

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 4774) peaking at 06:33 UTC on June 30, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 533 (NOAA Active Region 4122; beta). Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 533 (NOAA Active Region 4122; beta). The remaining active regions are relatively simple (magnetic type alpha or beta) and did not produce any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A wide coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 524) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at around 15:48 UTC on June 29, directed toward the west from Earth's perspective. The coronal mass ejection is likely associated with the large filament eruption, partially from the back of the Sun. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow cannot be fully excluded. Further analysis is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery over the past 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected the waning influence of high-speed streams (HSSs) from SIDC Coronal Hole 116 (negative polarity). The solar wind speed ranged between 450 km/s and 550 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained below 6 nT, and its southward component fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over the next few days, with a chance of a weak enhancement from July 02 due to the possible arrival of an ICME associated with a partial halo CME (SIDC CME 523), observed lifting from the Sun on June 28, and the anticipated high-speed stream arrival from the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp and K-Bel: 2 to 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance of increasing to active conditions and isolated minor or moderate storm periods from July 02, due to the possible arrival of an ICME associated with a partial halo CME (SIDC CME 523) observed lifting from the Sun on June 28, and the expected high-speed stream arrival from the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111).

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 and GOES-19, exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to exceed this threshold again in the coming days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 145, basierend auf 27 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 29 Jun 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	010
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	147 - Basierend auf 38 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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