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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Jul 02 1232 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
02 Jul 2025	126	024
03 Jul 2025	124	031
04 Jul 2025	122	024

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was low, with few C-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a C1.1 flare, peaking at 11:29 UTC on July 02, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 513 (NOAA Active Region 4132; magnetic type alpha). There are currently ten numbered active regions on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 537 (NOAA Active Region 4126; beta) is expected to rotate over the west limb in the coming hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery over the past 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected a return to slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from about 530 km/s to around 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained below 7 nT, and its southward component fluctuated between -3 nT and 3 nT. Solar wind conditions might become slightly elevated over the next days due to the possible arrival of an ICME associated with a partial halo CME (SIDC CME 523), observed lifting from the Sun on June 28, and the anticipated high-speed stream arrival from the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet globally and quiet to unsettled locally, over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 1 to 2, K-Bel: 1 to 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance of increasing to active conditions and isolated minor or moderate storm periods on July 02-03, due to the possible arrival of an ICME associated with a partial halo CME (SIDC CME 523) observed lifting from the Sun on June 28, and the expected high-speed stream arrival from the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111).

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 and GOES-19, exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may exceed this threshold again in the coming days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 145, basierend auf 23 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 01 Jul 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	182
10cm Solarflux	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	009
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	008
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	154 - Basierend auf 30 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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