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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Jul 04 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
04 Jul 2025	124	026
05 Jul 2025	121	024
06 Jul 2025	118	012

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a C2.5 flare (SIDC Flare 4796), peaking at 07:47 UTC on July 04, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 543 (NOAA Active Region 4130; beta). There are currently eight numbered active regions on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 534 (NOAA Active Region 4123; alpha) is approaching the west limb and remained quiet. A new small active region emerged in the northeastern quadrant during the period, numbered SIDC Sunspot Group 547, but it did not produce any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected ongoing ICME influence. The interplanetary magnetic field reached values up to 14 nT before gradually decreasing and stabilizing around 8 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 340 km/s and 400 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a minimum of -12 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated due to the ICME passage, with a chance of a weak enhancement on July 04-05 due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream from the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active levels globally (NOAA Kp = 4-) between 12:00 and 15:00 UTC and again between 21:00 and 00:00 UTC on July 03. Locally, active conditions were observed over Belgium (K-Bel = 4) between 12:00 and 15:00 UTC on July 03. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next days, with a chance of isolated active periods due to ongoing ICME influence and a small chance of high-speed stream (HSS) arrival.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the time, except for a brief instance around 14:30 UTC on July 03, during which it slightly exceeded the threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold between 15:50 UTC and 22:00 UTC on July 03. The electron flux is expected to remain mostly below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 109, basierend auf 22 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 03 Jul 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	134
10cm Solarflux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	021
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	022
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	125 - Basierend auf 31 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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