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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Aug 27 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
27 Aug 2025	202	007
28 Aug 2025	202	007
29 Aug 2025	202	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. This was an M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 5239) peaking on August 26 at 14:07 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 592 (NOAA Active Regions 4202). A total of 14 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

SIDC Coronal Hole 126 (northern mid-latitude coronal hole with negative polarity) is located in the western hemisphere, its associated high speed stream may still reach the Earth today.

Sonnenwind

The Earth is inside slow solar wind with speeds around 350 km/s and interplanetary magnetic fields of about 7 nT (directed towards the Sun, negative polarity). The high speed stream from SIDC Coronal Hole 126 has not arrived to the Earth, it may still do so today (with minor influence expected).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet (Kp and B_Bel between 0 and 2). Quiet to unsettled periods are expected for the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux passed above the 10 pfu threshold on 26 August, and is currently at 12 pfu. The proton levels started to slowly increase on 22 August (as the result of a backsided CME on 21 August) and have gradually approached the threshold. Since 25 August the levels were very close to the 10 pfu mark. The flux will remain elevated in the next 24 hours, but no strong additional increases are expected.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and 19 remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, similar conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The 24 h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 199, basierend auf 12 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 26 Aug 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	172
10cm Solarflux	202
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	009
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	187 - Basierend auf 26 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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