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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Sep 01 1233 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
01 Sep 2025	211	040
02 Sep 2025	214	026
03 Sep 2025	210	013

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C6.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5401) peaking on August 31 at 18:26 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 592 (NOAA Active Regions 4173, 4202). A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 614 (NOAA Active Region 4197) is the largest region on disk and has a Beta- Gamma magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions at Earth were mildly disturbed, due to a high-speed stream (HSS), associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 122. The solar wind speed ranged from 380 km/s to 480 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 5 nT to 8 nT, with the Bz component reaching a minimum of -5 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun), with periods in the positive sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to become disturbed in the next 24, due to the expected arrival of an ICME that left the Sun on August 30.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (Kp 1–3 & K BEL 1–3). Major storm conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, due to the arrival of an ICME.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux became elevated and is expected to cross the 10 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, were below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hour. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 183, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 31 Aug 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	217
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	010
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	009
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	189 - Basierend auf 28 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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