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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Oct 14 1235 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
14 Oct 2025	149	017
15 Oct 2025	155	008
16 Oct 2025	158	027

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 2 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an M2.0 flare (SIDC Flare 5752) peaking on October 14 at 00:41 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 639 (NOAA Active Region 4246). This region is the most complex on disk and was responsible for most of the flaring activity, including an M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 5740), peaking on October 13 at 13:18 UTC. SIDC Sunspot group 621 (NOAA Active region 4248) produced C-class flares. The remaining regions were quiet and either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

The Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 579) visible to the north in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 14:12 UTC and seen in STEREO-A COR2 data from 14:23 UTC, has been further analysed and is expected to impact Earth from early on October 16. Two further CMEs (SIDC CME 580 and 581) were observed to the north in SOHO/LASCO-C2 and to the east in STEREO-A/COR2 data, associated with an M1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 5731) and M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 5740), respectively. These CMEs are mostly ahead of the Sun-Earth line but a glancing blow from a combination of these may be possible late on October 16. A large filament erupted from the east (E60N10) with an associated CME in LASCO-C2 from 00:48UTC on October 14 but this is not considered to be Earth directed.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind conditions reflected the ongoing waning influence of the high-speed stream associated with the large equatorial coronal hole that first began to cross the central meridian on October 08 (SIDC Coronal Hole 116). The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 700 km/s to 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 1 and 6 nT. Bz ranged between -5 nT and 5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decrease slowly over the next 24 hours due to the waning high- speed stream influence. From early on October 16, the conditions may become enhanced due to a possible CME arrival.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reached unsettled conditions (Kp 3+ ), due to the ongoing high speed stream influence. Locally active conditions were observed (K Bel 4). Unsettled to active conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with periods of minor storm conditions (Kp 5) possible from October 16 in response to the possible CME arrival.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this threshold level over the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of an increase related to any high-level flaring, particularly from SIDC Sunspot Group 639 (NOAA Active Region 4246).

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be a moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 132, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 13 Oct 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	132
10cm Solarflux	141
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	021
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	024
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	127 - Basierend auf 21 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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