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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Nov 09 1241 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
09 Nov 2025	171	009
10 Nov 2025	170	013
11 Nov 2025	167	008

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 1 X-class flare identified. The largest flare was a X1.7 flare (SIDC Flare 6002) peaking on November 09 at 07:35 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274) is the largest region on disk, the most magnetically complex (Beta-Gamma-Delta) and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 689 (NOAA Active Region 4276) is the second largest region on disk and has a Beta- Gamma magnetic configuration and produced C-class flares in the last 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

Further analysis of a partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (SIDC CME 597) detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 12:48 UTC on November 07 show that an arrival at Earth is expected around 07:12 UTC on November 12. A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (SIDC CME 598) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 07:24 UTC on November 09. This CME is likely associated with a X1.79 flare (SIDC flare 6002) peaking on November 09 at 07:30 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). The CME has an estimated speed of 720 km/s and is expected to arrive at Earth around 03:11 UT on November 12.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the Earth was under the waning influence of one or more ICMEs. The solar wind speed ranged from 504 km/s to 690 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 4 to 5 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum of -3 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun), with periods in the positive sector. In the next 24 hours the solar wind conditions are expected to become disturbed due to the possible arrival of a CME (SIDC CME 596) that left the Sun on November 07.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled globally (Kp 1-3) and reached active conditions locally (K BEL 4). Active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain at background levels over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite crossed the 1000 pfu threshold between 17:10 UT on November 08 and 22:15 UTC on November 08. The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to cross the threshold again during the next 24 hour. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 166, basierend auf 15 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 08 Nov 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	028
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	035
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	153 - Basierend auf 20 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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