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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2025 Dec 08 1249 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
08 Dec 2025	196	007
09 Dec 2025	198	055
10 Dec 2025	200	013

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with one X-class flare and three M-class flares. The strongest flare was an X1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 6337) peaking at 05:01 UTC on December 8, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 713 (NOAA Active Region 4298, magnetic type beta). There are currently eight numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294) with magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. SIDC Sunspot Group 718 (magnetic type beta-gamma) has emerged in the north hemisphere, east of SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4299, magnetic type beta-delta). The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A wide Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 606), was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 05:20 UTC on December 08, lifting off the west limb. It is most likely associated with the X1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 6337) that peaked at 05:01 UTC on December 8. Preliminary analysis indicates that it will not impact Earth. Further analysis is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE) were gradually returning to the slow solar wind regime. Speed values decreased from approximately 500 km/s to the current value of approximately 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values decreased from 10 nT to 7 nT. The Bz component varied between 8 nT and 1 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible over the next 24 hours, due to the expected arrival of the ICME associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 605) observed around 19:24 UTC on December 06.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 2, K BEL 1 to 2). Moderate to major storm conditions (NOAA Kp 6 to 7), with small chances of severe geomagnetic conditions, are expected over the next 24 hours due to the anticipated arrival of the ICME associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 605) observed around 19:24 UTC on December 06.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was enhanced but remained below the 10 pfu threshold. The 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain so over the next days, with chances for further enhancements.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

During the last 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu threshold until 19:00 UTC on December 07. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was above the 1000 pfu threshold until 02:00 UTC on December 08. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to gradually return to normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 168, basierend auf 06 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 07 Dec 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	194
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	007
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	008
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	161 - Basierend auf 05 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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