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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jan 01 1240 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
01 Jan 2026	165	022
02 Jan 2026	160	018
03 Jan 2026	155	044

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M7.1 flare (SIDC Flare 6547) peaking on December 31 at 13:51 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 744 (NOAA Active Region 4324). This region along with SIDC Sunspot Group 745 (NOAA Active Region 4325) are the largest and most complex on disk. Sunspot Group 745 (NOAA Active Region 4325, Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration) produced a C9.6 flare (SIDC Flare 6553) with peak time 02:25 UTC on January 01. SIDC Sunspot Group 735 (NOAA Active Region 4317) has rotated over the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 748 (NOAA Active Regions 4329) decayed. There are currently 7 numbered regions on the disk . The remaining regions are simple and mostly quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), predominantly directed to the north-east, was observed in LASCO-C2 data from 14:12 UTC on December 31. The CME originated from SIDC Sunspot Group 744 (NOAA Active Region 4324) in the north-east quadrant and was associated with an M7.1 flare (SIDC flare 6547), with peak time December 31 at 13:51 UTC. This eruption had an associated on disk dimming and a Type II and Type IV radio emission. Analysis indicates a possible impact at Earth from early on January 03. A CME directed to the south-east, first seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 06:36 UTC on January 01, is likely associated with a filament eruption near the south-east limb and is being analysed for a possible Earth directed component. A second CME to the east overlapping this CME in LASCO-C2 data from 06:18 UTC, from a sympathetic eruption, is also being analysed.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, there was a slight enhancement in the solar wind speed likely due to a weak high speed stream arrival. The solar wind speed ranged between 400 and 550 km/s and was stable around 500 km/s at the end of the period. The total magnetic field ranged between 3 and 12 nT, and Bz had a minimum of -8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switch from the positive to the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) from around 12:20 UTC December 31. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours due to the ongoing high speed stream and a possible glancing blow arrival of a CME from December 28. The CME from December 31, may also impact the solar wind conditions from early on January 03.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels globally (NOAA Kp 1 to 3) and locally (K BEL 1 to 3) over the past 24 hours. Active storm conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with minor storm intervals possible, due to the high speed stream and glancing blow CME arrival.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, was briefly above the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again briefly exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours but is expected to continue to gradually decrease overall. The electron fluence was at nominal to moderate levels and is expected to be at nominal levels for the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 117, basierend auf 07 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 31 Dec 2025

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	007
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	143 - Basierend auf 21 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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