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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jan 03 1238 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
03 Jan 2026	164	020
04 Jan 2026	164	017
05 Jan 2026	162	032

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C2.9 flare (SIDC Flare 6567) peaking on January 03 at 01:37 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 744 (NOAA Active Region 4324). This region has reduced in size over the period and has Beta-Delta magnetic configuration. There are currently 8 numbered regions on the disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 745 (NOAA Active Region 4325, Beta configuration) is the largest region on disk and also produced low level C-class flares, but became less complex magnetically. SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4323) developed into a bipolar region (beta magnetic configuration). A new region emerged in the south-west quadrant and was numbered SIDC Sunspot Group 753 (alpha magnetic configuration). SIDC Sunspot Group 749 (NOAA Active Region 4331) decayed over the period. The remaining regions are simple and mostly quiet or in decay. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were enhanced. It is unclear if this is due to the ongoing high speed stream or in combination with an earlier than expected weak glancing blow CME arrival of the CME of January 31. The solar wind speed ranged between 500 and 700 km/s. The total magnetic field ranged between 2 and 10 nT, and Bz had a minimum of -9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Further disturbed solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, due ongoing high speed stream and possible further CME effects. Further enhancements are possible from late on January 04 due to the arrival of a CME from January 01.

Geomagnetismus

Over the past 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels globally (NOAA Kp 5) and active levels locally (K BEL 4). Active to minor storm conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with moderate storm intervals possible, particularly from January 04, due to the ongoing high speed stream and further CME effects.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels for the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 105, basierend auf 09 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 02 Jan 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	121
10cm Solarflux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	044
AK Wingst	032
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	031
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	123 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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