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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jan 17 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
17 Jan 2026	148	016
18 Jan 2026	150	031
19 Jan 2026	148	027

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with only one M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M2.2 flare peaking on January 16 at 10:29 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 740 (NOAA Active Region 4341). A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 763 (NOAA Active Region 4343) is the most complex active region and has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. The CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 02:36 UTC on Jan 17 will be further analysed.

Koronale Löcher

SIDC Coronal Hole 146 (a large equatorial coronal hole with a positive polarity) continues it's crossing of the central meridian. High Speed Stream from this coronal hole is expected to impact earth on the 18th of January.

Sonnenwind

Fast solar wind conditions were recorded over the last 24 hours with speeds peaking at 740 Km/s, and currently at around 700 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 13 nT till Jan 17 02:00 UTC then reduced to 8nT. Bz reached a minimum value of -12 nT. Fast Solar wind speeds are expected for the next 24h, due to the possible arrival of the High Speed stream of SIDC CH 146.

Geomagnetismus

Both locally and globally, the geomagnetic activity were Active to Minor Storm (Kp 5+ between Jan 16 15:00 UTC to 18:00 UTC and Jan 16 21:00 UTC to Jan 17 00:00 UTC). Active to Minor storm levels are expected for the next 24h.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, but may increase above the threshold during the next 24 hours under the influence of the high speed stream. The 24h electron fluence was decreasing but still at moderate levels and is expected to decrease to normal levels.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 136, basierend auf 09 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 16 Jan 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	046
AK Wingst	026
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	029
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	142 - Basierend auf 15 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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