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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Dec 01 2230 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (02 Dec) and likely to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days two and three (03 Dec,
04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s at 30/2317Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 01/1639Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/2311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 8521 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (02 Dec), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (03 Dec) and active to major storm levels on day three (04
Dec). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Dec),
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (03 Dec) and have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (04 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| Class M | 80% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 196 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 195/195/200 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 005/005-018/024-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 60% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2025 | 114.6 -15.2 |
| December 2025 | 186 +71.4 |
| Last 30 days | 106.3 +12.6 |