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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 03/2209Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/0758Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/1009Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2438 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (06 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (07 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
Class M65%65%65%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Nov 159
  Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 130/135/135
  90 Day Mean        04 Nov 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  018/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  006/008-016/018-020/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%35%40%
Minor storm01%25%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%60%65%

All times in UTC

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