Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 November 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Nov 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 03/2209Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 04/0758Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/1009Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2438 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (06 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (07
Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 159 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 130/135/135 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 018/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 006/008-016/018-020/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 60% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2025 | 114.6 -15.2 |
| December 2025 | 186 +71.4 |
| Last 30 days | 106.3 +12.6 |