Viendo archivo del viernes, 23 mayo 1997

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 May 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 143 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 MAY 1997

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 8040 (N07W40) DECAYED AND PRODUCED ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A SMALL REGION ROTATED AROUND THE LIMB AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8046 (S26E68). THE LARGE PROMINENCES ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB ON 22 MAY FADED SOMETIME BEFORE 23/1500Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A C-CLASS FLARE FROM DECAYING REGION 8040.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE RELATED TO THE CME ON 21 MAY HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AT THE TIME INITIALLY EXPECTED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ON 24 MAY AND EARLY 25 MAY. ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS DISTURBANCE. THE CONFIDENCE THAT THE CME WILL IMPACT THE EARTH IS HIGH DUE TO THE NATURE OF SPACE OBSERVATIONS OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF IMPACT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 26 MAY AFTER THE DISTURBANCE PASSES.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 MAY a 26 MAY
Clase M05%05%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       23 MAY 076
  Previsto   24 MAY-26 MAY  076/076/076
  Media de 90 Días        23 MAY 074
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAY  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAY  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAY-26 MAY  025/025-015/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 MAY a 26 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%25%10%
Tormenta Menor25%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%15%10%
Tormenta Menor25%20%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%15%01%

All times in UTC

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