Viendo archivo del martes, 1 septiembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Sep 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 244 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 SEP 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8307 (N32W90)
PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 0459Z. REGION 8323 (S23E30) CONTINUED TO
GROW AND IS NOW A LARGE (1230 MILLIONTHS) COMPACT SUNSPOT GROUP WITH
A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. THE REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8319 (N19W68) ALSO PRODUCED
SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES, BUT DID NOT SHOW ANY GROWTH TREND AND HAS
A SIMPLE, BETA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE. THE CONTINUED GROWTH, COMPLEXITY, AND
MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTHS IN REGION 8323, HOWEVER, IMPLY THAT THERE
IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS
APPEARED TO BE TRANSITIONING FROM THE HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY FLOW
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS, TO A SLOWER, SOMEWHAT HIGHER DENSITY THAT IS
CHARACTERISTIC OF NORMAL QUIESCENT SOLAR WIND. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED, WITH A FEW ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY
DAY THREE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 SEP a 04 SEP
| Clase M | 70% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 SEP 177 Previsto 02 SEP-04 SEP 170/165/150 Media de 90 Días 01 SEP 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 AUG 012/022 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 SEP 010/022 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 SEP-04 SEP 015/015-015/012-005/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 SEP a 04 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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