Viendo archivo del martes, 10 noviembre 1998

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 314 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 NOV 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. REGION 8375 (N22W88) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 10/1544Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW TO MID C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8384 (S27E63) WAS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT EXHIBITED MIXED POLARITIES AND A POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION. A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BEGINNING AT 09/1754Z. SEVERAL OTHER LARGE MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST LIMBS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REGION 8375 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS AND OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. X-CLASS EVENTS FROM THIS REGION REMAIN POSSIBLE. ON 13 NOV, FLARE FREQUENCY SHOULD DECREASE AS REGION 8375 ROTATES FAR BEYOND THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8384 COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE SMALL FLARES DUE TO ITS MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. BRIEF ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 11-12 NOV. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE FORECAST FOR 13 NOV IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 09 NOV.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 NOV a 13 NOV
Clase M70%30%20%
Clase X30%15%10%
Protón30%20%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       10 NOV 154
  Previsto   11 NOV-13 NOV  145/142/140
  Media de 90 Días        10 NOV 133 (ESTIMATED)
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 NOV  030/078
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 NOV  006/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 NOV-13 NOV  008/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 NOV a 13 NOV
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%30%
Tormenta Menor15%15%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%10%

All times in UTC

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