Viendo archivo del viernes, 18 diciembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Dec 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 352 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 DEC 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8415 (N19E61) PRODUCED
A M8/2N EVENT AT 18/1722Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP. THE
TYPE II SPEED WAS ESTIMATED AT 1200 KM/S. AN 880 SFU TENFLARE WAS
ALSO DETECTED DURING THE M8 X-RAY EVENT. REGION 8415 ALSO PRODUCED
NUMEROUS C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE
M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS FROM REGION 8415 OR REGION 8409 (S27W63).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. A CME WAS OBSERVED FROM SOHO LASCO
IMAGERY AT 18/1834Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE M8 X-RAY EVENT IN REGION
8415 EARLIER TODAY. LASCO AND EIT REPORTED A PARTIAL HALO.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE THREE
DAY PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT GEOMAGNETIC EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THE X-RAY EVENT AT 18/1722Z UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 DEC a 21 DEC
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 DEC 155 Previsto 19 DEC-21 DEC 150/145/140 Media de 90 Días 18 DEC 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 DEC 000/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 DEC 002/003 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 DEC-21 DEC 005/009-008/009-008/009
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 DEC a 21 DEC
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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