Viendo archivo del martes, 5 enero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jan 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 005 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 JAN 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL SMALL OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS OCCURRED. REGION 8421 (N26W84)
CONTINUES ITS SLOW DECAY AS IT ROTATES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8426
(N15W10) WAS THE ONLY REGION SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT GROWTH AND IS
NOW A D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP COVERING 190 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT
AREA. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET AND STABLE. NEW REGION 8432
(N27W35) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8321 AND 8326 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT
ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY DAY 2 FROM THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-DURATION C6/1N FLARE ON 03/1514Z. DAY 3
WILL BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AS A SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A
GEO-EFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 JAN a 08 JAN
| Clase M | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 JAN 137 Previsto 06 JAN-08 JAN 135/130/130 Media de 90 Días 05 JAN 138
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JAN 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JAN 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JAN-08 JAN 012/015-020/025-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 JAN a 08 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 50% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 55% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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