Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 enero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jan 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 021 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 JAN 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGIONS 8439 (S22W42) AND
8440 (N19W37) CONTINUE TO HAVE PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND POINT
BRIGHTENINGS. BOTH REGIONS MAINTAINED A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION WITH APPROXIMATELY 25 SPOTS IN EACH REGION. NEW
REGION 8446 (N14E61) APPEARED AS A BXO-BETA SPOT GROUP WITH 3 SPOTS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 ARE EACH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. ANOTHER EVENT COULD OCCUR FROM THE REGION
JUST BEHIND THE NORTHEAST LIMB, THE SITE OF YESTERDAY'S M5 X-RAY
EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10
MEV PROTONS BECAME ENHANCED BUT BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD FROM
YESTERDAY'S SOLAR ACTIVITY.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENHANCED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 JAN a 24 JAN
| Clase M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 JAN 175 Previsto 22 JAN-24 JAN 180/185/180 Media de 90 Días 21 JAN 141
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JAN 008/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JAN 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JAN-24 JAN 012/014-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 JAN a 24 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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