Viendo archivo del jueves, 11 febrero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Feb 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 042 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 FEB 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A LONG DURATION C3.7 X-RAY EVENT AT 10/2346Z. SPACE BASED
IMAGERY SUGGEST REGION 8457 (N16E36) AS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THIS
EVENT. REGION 8356 (N23E16) ALSO PRODUCED MINOR C-CLASS SUBFLARES AS
IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND NOW EXHIBITS A MODERATELY COMPLEX
BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE GROWTH OCCURRED IN
REGION 8458 (S22E42) WHERE A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION DEVELOPED LATE
IN THE PERIOD. OTHER DYNAMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN THIS REGION INDICATE
INCREASED FLARE POTENTIAL AS THE REGION NOW MEASURES 700 MILLIONTHS
OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. EXPECT CONTINUED C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY FROM REGIONS
8456 AND 8457 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS. REGION 8458 IS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AS A LIKELY SOURCE FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL A WEAK
INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAS OBSERVED AT 11/0900Z; UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SINCE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT PERIOD, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED THEREAFTER.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 FEB a 14 FEB
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 FEB 164 Previsto 12 FEB-14 FEB 170/175/175 Media de 90 Días 11 FEB 141
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 FEB 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 FEB 017/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 FEB-14 FEB 012/012-008/012-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 FEB a 14 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 70% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 80% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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