Viendo archivo del martes, 2 marzo 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Mar 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 061 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 MAR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8475 (N31E03) PRODUCED A
C6/SN AT 02/1212Z WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS. REGION 8471 (N28W40)
GENERATED A MODERATE DURATION C6/1F AT 02/1519Z. FREQUENT SUBFLARES
OCCURRED IN SEVERAL REGIONS. REGIONS 8475 AND 8471 EXHIBITED SLIGHT
GROWTH AND LESSENED MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. RECENT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH
DATA INDICATED SMALL AREAS OF MODERATE SHEAR IN EACH REGION. REGION
8476 (N18W09) GREW AT A MODERATE PACE AND THE EXISTENCE OF A
MULTI-STRAND ARCH FILAMENT SYSTEM BODES WELL FOR CONTINUED GROWTH.
NEW REGION 8479 (S14W17) WAS SPLIT OFF FROM REGION 8478 (S15W25).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8471, 8475, AND
8476 SHOULD PRODUCE SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS PER DAY. ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8471 AND 8475. CONTINUED EMERGENCE
OF REGION 8476 COULD RESULT IN SMALL M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FROM
02/2100-02/0600Z. AFTERWARD, THE FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR
WIND VELOCITY WAS IN EXCESS OF 500 KM/S AND DENSITY WAS IN THE 3-4
P/CC RANGE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PERIODS AT
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 MAR a 05 MAR
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 MAR 130 Previsto 03 MAR-05 MAR 130/131/132 Media de 90 Días 02 MAR 144
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAR 023/033 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAR 016/017 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAR-05 MAR 012/013-010/013-010/009
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 MAR a 05 MAR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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