Viendo archivo del viernes, 19 marzo 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Mar 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 078 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 MAR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. REGION 8485 (N22W78)
HAS QUIETED DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. LIMB
PROXIMITY INHIBITS A THOROUGH ANALYSIS, BUT IT APPEARS NOW AS A
SIMPLE BETA GROUP IN DECAY. A PROMINENCE ERUPTED FROM THE SE LIMB
AROUND 19/1620Z. SPACE-BASED IMAGERY INDICATE A CORONAL MASS
EJECTION OCCURRED WITH THE ERUPTION, BUT MATERIAL DOES NOT APPEAR
EARTHBOUND. FIVE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY - REGIONS 8492
(S27W46), 8493 (N19W22), 8494 (S22E15), 8495 (S21E61), AND 8496
(S11W03). REGION 8493 APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST ACTIVITY POTENTIAL
OF THESE NEW REGIONS AS IT QUICKLY DEVELOPED INTO A C CLASS GROUP
WITH OVER 20 SPOTS VISIBLE IN WHITE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
WAS NOTED IN THE REMAINING REGIONS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FROM REGION 8485 AS IT
ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS DIMINISHING AS
THE REGION CONTINUES TO DECAY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 MAR a 22 MAR
| Clase M | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 MAR 139 Previsto 20 MAR-22 MAR 135/130/135 Media de 90 Días 19 MAR 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAR 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAR 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAR-22 MAR 008/008-008/007-008/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 MAR a 22 MAR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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