Viendo archivo del jueves, 29 julio 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jul 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 210 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 JUL 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8651 (N24E49) PRODUCED
A VERY IMPULSIVE M5/1N FLARE AT 29/1936Z WITH SMALL CENTIMETRIC
BURSTS. THIS REGION EXHIBITED GROWTH IN BOTH WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA
IMAGERY AND PLAGE COVERAGE WAS NEAR FLARE INTENSITY DURING THE
LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD. REGION 8645 (S24E10) PRODUCED AN M1/2N
FLARE AT 29/1656Z. THIS REGION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP, COVERING
590 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA IN AN F-TYPE GROUP WITH
MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8649 (S15W16) CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FREQUENT SMALL FLARES BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH WAS
OBSERVED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8645 AND 8651 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FURTHER M-CLASS
ACTIVITY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN X-CLASS EVENT. REGIONS 8647
(S18E11), 8649, AND 8636 (N20W82) HAVE SMALLER POTENTIAL FOR AN
M-CLASS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR DAY ONE.
OCCASIONAL ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAYS TWO AND THREE IN
RESPONSE TO THE M-CLASS/CME EVENTS IN REGION 8649 ON EARLY 28 JUL.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 JUL a 01 AUG
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 JUL 202 Previsto 30 JUL-01 AUG 200/190/180 Media de 90 Días 29 JUL 160
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JUL 007/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUL 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUL-01 AUG 010/010-012/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 JUL a 01 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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