Viendo archivo del viernes, 6 agosto 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Aug 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
*************CORRECTED COPY**************************** SDF Número 218 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 AUG 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8645
(S28W92) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 06/1636Z WHILE CROSSING THE SOUTHWEST
LIMB. A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (EST. SHOCK VELOCITY 900 KM/SEC) WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE. TWO M1 X-RAY BURSTS WERE DETECTED AT
05/2224Z AND 05/2239Z. SPACE-BASED IMAGES INDICATED THAT REGION 8645
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE EVENTS AS WELL. REGION 8651 (N26W57)
CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DECLINE, BUT REMAINED A MODERATE-SIZED F-TYPE
GROUP WITH A SLIGHT MIXING OF POLARITIES. IT PRODUCED A SINGLE
SUBFLARE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 8662 (S16E60) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM BEYOND THE
SOUTHWEST LIMB DURING THE FIRST DAY. REGION 8651 MAY PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACTIVE LEVELS
OCCURRED DURING 06/1500 - 1800Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 AUG a 09 AUG
| Clase M | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 AUG 170 Previsto 07 AUG-09 AUG 160/155/145 Media de 90 Días 06 AUG 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 AUG 006/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 AUG 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 AUG-09 AUG 008/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 AUG a 09 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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