Viendo archivo del martes, 14 septiembre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 257 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 SEP 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL MINOR, MOSTLY OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SMALL GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGIONS 8690 (N15W34) AND 8699 (N21W11). NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOTED IN ANY OF THE REMAINING FOUR SUNSPOT REGIONS. AN IMPRESSIVE PROMINENCE ERUPTION/CME ON THE NW LIMB WAS OBSERVED FROM SPACE-BASED IMAGERY AT AROUND 14/0500UT.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LOW LEVELS. REGIONS 8690, 8692 (S27W14), 8699 (N21W11), AND 8700 (N14E59), ALL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORMING. THIS ONGOING DISTURBANCE, ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM, CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS,
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WILL CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING LOCAL DAYLIGHT HOURS AND UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME. EFFECTS FROM THE HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOMORROW; HOWEVER, WE MAY EXPERIENCE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ON DAY TWO FROM CME'S OBSERVED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 SEP a 17 SEP
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 SEP 156
  Previsto   15 SEP-17 SEP  160/165/170
  Media de 90 Días        14 SEP 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 SEP  023/038
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 SEP  022/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 SEP-17 SEP  018/015-018/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 SEP a 17 SEP
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo50%40%30%
Tormenta Menor20%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo60%50%40%
Tormenta Menor30%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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