Viendo archivo del jueves, 16 septiembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Sep 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 259 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 SEP 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A C7/SF FROM REGION 8700 (N14E31). OCCASIONAL MINOR C-CLASS
SUBFLARES WERE ALSO OBSERVED IN REGIONS 8699 (N22W39) AND 8692
(S26W41). AN IMPRESSIVE DARK, 50 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTED FROM
NORTH-CENTER DISK. THIS FILAMENT WAS ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE PAST 24
HOURS. ELEVATION WAS FIRST DETECTED AT AROUND 16/1230UT WITH THE
TOTAL ERUPTION OF THIS TWO-PART FILAMENT OCCURRING AT 16/1620UT. THE
EVENT WAS OBSERVED ON BOTH GROUND AND SPACE-BASED INSTRUMENTS WITH A
LARGE CME OBSERVED BY LASCO.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. SEVERAL EXISTING SUNSPOT REGIONS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A LOW M-CLASS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH
ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWARD BZ AND A 600KM/S SOLAR WIND SPEED FOLLOWED A
SUDDEN IMPULSE (SI) OBSERVED AT 15/2019UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR STORMING MOSTLY
AT HIGH LATITUDES. DAY TWO SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE AS THE HIGH SPEED
STREAM SUBSIDES, EXPECT QUIET TO OCCASIONAL ACTIVE. WE MAY SEE THE
EFFECTS OF TODAY'S LARGE DSF ON DAY 3, LOOK FOR ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY 3.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 SEP a 19 SEP
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 SEP 158 Previsto 17 SEP-19 SEP 160/165/170 Media de 90 Días 16 SEP 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 SEP 021/032 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 SEP 025/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 SEP-19 SEP 020/025-015/020-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 SEP a 19 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 50% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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