Viendo archivo del viernes, 19 noviembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Nov 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 323 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 NOV 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8773 (S14E39) WAS SPLIT
OFF FROM THE TRAILING PORTION OF REGION 8771 (S15E28). TWO OTHER
SMALL SPOT GROUPS WERE NUMBERED, REGION 8774 (N22E69) AND REGION
8775 (S17W18). A LARGE FILAMENT/PROMINENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST HAS
ERUPTED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. MAJOR FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8765 (S12
W34), REGION 8766 (N17 W11), AND REGION 8771 (S15E28).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS BASICALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD EXPECTED
TO BE UNSETTELED TO ACTIVE. THERE IS EVIDENCE IN THE SOLAR WIND
DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE SOLAR WIND
WHICH MAY IMPACT THE EARTH.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 NOV a 22 NOV
| Clase M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 NOV 210 Previsto 20 NOV-22 NOV 205/200/200 Media de 90 Días 19 NOV 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 NOV 008/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 NOV 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 NOV-22 NOV 020/020-015/012-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 NOV a 22 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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