Viendo archivo del sábado, 18 diciembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Dec 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 352 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 DEC 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. ACTIVE REGIONS 8798
(S13E09) AND 8806 (N19E62) HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT MINOR FLARES
INCLUDING 2 WEAK CLASS M EVENTS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8806
AND NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8807 (N11E68) ARE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS THAT
HAVE ROTATED INTO VIEW ON THE NORTHEAST LIMB.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE WITH UP TO CLASS M EVENTS LIKELY FROM REGIONS 8798,8806,
AND 8807.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS DECLINED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
SMALL CORONAL HOLE ROTATES INTO POSITION TO AFFECT EARTH.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 DEC a 21 DEC
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 DEC 206 Previsto 19 DEC-21 DEC 205/200/195 Media de 90 Días 18 DEC 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 DEC 008/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 DEC 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 DEC-21 DEC 007/008-008/015-006/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 DEC a 21 DEC
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 09% | 07% |
| Tormenta Menor | 02% | 02% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 06% | 12% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 03% | 03% | 06% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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