Viendo archivo del martes, 21 diciembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Dec 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 355 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 DEC 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8806 (N19E24)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 21/1719UT. REGION 8806 IS THE LARGEST REGION ON
THE DISK AND CONTINUES TO BE MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. REGION 8798
(S13W33), THE SECOND LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK, HAS ONLY PRODUCED
SMALL C FLARES. A CME WAS OBSERVED BY SOHO AROUND 1600UT ON THE
20TH, BUT APPEARED TO BE A BACKSIDE EVENT. THE OBSERVED 10CM RADIO
FLUX REPORTED IN PART IV MAY BE FLARE ENHANCED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR MAJOR ACTIVITY FROM EITHER
REGION 8798 OR REGION 8806.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN BASICALLY QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 DEC a 24 DEC
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 DEC 217 Previsto 22 DEC-24 DEC 200/195/190 Media de 90 Días 21 DEC 172
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 DEC 004/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 DEC 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 DEC-24 DEC 007/010-007/007-005/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 DEC a 24 DEC
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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