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Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 020 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 JAN 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OF THE SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, REGION 8837 (S08W55) HAS SHOWN THE MOST DEVELOPMENT, DOUBLING IN AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8824 (S13W72) CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8839 (N11E06) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. A MAJOR SEGMENT OF THE POLAR CROWN FILAMENT NEAR N60E10 DISAPPEARED AFTER 0800UT ON 19 JANUARY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. INCREASED FLARE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION 8837 AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. A K OF 4 WAS OBSERVED IN BOULDER AT 1200UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THRU 22 JAN. SOLAR WIND DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT CONTINUE TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK. ON 23 JAN THE FIELD SHOULD RETURN TO QUIET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 JAN a 23 JAN
Clase M40%40%30%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 JAN 171
  Previsto   21 JAN-23 JAN  170/165/160
  Media de 90 Días        20 JAN 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JAN  012/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JAN-23 JAN  015/012-025/035-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 JAN a 23 JAN
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%20%
Tormenta Menor10%20%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%02%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%30%25%
Tormenta Menor10%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%06%01%

All times in UTC

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