Viendo archivo del viernes, 12 mayo 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 133 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 MAY 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE A NUMBER OF C-CLASS
X-RAY FLARES, ALL OF THEM OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. A 32 DEGREE
FILAMENT ERUPTED FROM ROUGHLY S50E50 BETWEEN 11/22 AND 11/23UT. THE
ERUPTION WAS VISIBLE IN EIT IMAGERY AND LASCO REVEALED A DRAMATIC
CME OFF THE SOUTH POLE. AT THIS TIME THE CME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
EARTH DIRECTED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THERE ARE CURRENTLY A NUMBER OF REGIONS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING M FLARES.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. ACE DATA
INDICATED THE PASSAGE OF TWO SOLAR TRANSIENTS, ASSUMED TO BE RELATED
TO THE MULTIPLE FILAMENT ERUPTIONS OF 8 MAY. WHILE THE TRANSIENTS
PRODUCED SUSTAINED PERIODS OF NEGATIVE BZ, THE WIND SPEED REMAINED
VERY LOW INHIBITING A STRONG GEOMAGNETIC RESPONSE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
PERIOD. ON THE FIRST DAY, WE EXPECT TO SEE INCREASES IN THE SOLAR
WIND SPEED DUE TO A SMALL CORONAL HOLE THAT IS NOW FAVORABLY
POSITIONED. A SHOCK ASSOCIATED WITH THE 10 MAY LONG DURATION FLARE
AND FILAMENT ERUPTION IS ALSO EXPECTED LATE 13 OR EARLY 14 MAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 MAY a 15 MAY
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 MAY 190 Previsto 13 MAY-15 MAY 195/200/200 Media de 90 Días 12 MAY 187
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAY 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAY 015/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAY-15 MAY 020/020-015/015-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 MAY a 15 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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