Viendo archivo del martes, 16 mayo 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 137 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 MAY 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M3/SF FROM
REGION 9002 (N19E61) AT 16/1551UT. THE OTHER REGIONS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WERE 8989 (N18W80), 8993 (S21W84), AND 8998
(S13E28), ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST
REGION REMAINS 8996 (S21E31) WITH AN AREA OF 1240 MILLIONTHS AND 41
SPOTS. IT HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NO NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MODERATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE PERIODS COULD
INCREASE ON THE SECOND DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR STORMING AT
HIGHER LATITUDES DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A CME REPORTED ON
15 MAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 MAY a 19 MAY
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 MAY 259 Previsto 17 MAY-19 MAY 260/260/265 Media de 90 Días 16 MAY 190
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAY 012/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAY 015/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAY-19 MAY 015/020-025/030-018/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 MAY a 19 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 70% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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