Viendo archivo del martes, 16 mayo 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 16 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 137 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 MAY 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M3/SF FROM REGION 9002 (N19E61) AT 16/1551UT. THE OTHER REGIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WERE 8989 (N18W80), 8993 (S21W84), AND 8998 (S13E28), ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST REGION REMAINS 8996 (S21E31) WITH AN AREA OF 1240 MILLIONTHS AND 41 SPOTS. IT HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE PERIODS COULD INCREASE ON THE SECOND DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR STORMING AT HIGHER LATITUDES DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A CME REPORTED ON 15 MAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 MAY a 19 MAY
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 MAY 259
  Previsto   17 MAY-19 MAY  260/260/265
  Media de 90 Días        16 MAY 190
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAY  012/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAY  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAY-19 MAY  015/020-025/030-018/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 MAY a 19 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%50%30%
Tormenta Menor20%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%70%35%
Tormenta Menor15%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%05%

All times in UTC

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